Upset Predictor
Championship Favourite Index
Average predicted win probability across all WC 2026 group stage matches.
🥇
Netherlands F
44.3%
Netherlands F
44.3%
🥈
England L
42.7%
England L
42.7%
🥉
Spain H
38.7%
Spain H
38.7%
4
Morocco C
38.7%
Morocco C
38.7%
5
Türkiye D
38.7%
Türkiye D
38.7%
6
Canada B
38.7%
Canada B
38.7%
7
Belgium G
37%
Belgium G
37%
8
Mexico A
37%
Mexico A
37%
9
Tunisia F
37%
Tunisia F
37%
10
USA D
33.3%
USA D
33.3%
11
France I
33%
France I
33%
12
Colombia K
33%
Colombia K
33%
13
Senegal I
33%
Senegal I
33%
14
Iran G
33%
Iran G
33%
15
Germany E
33%
Germany E
33%
16
Argentina J
33%
Argentina J
33%
Giant Killing Candidates
4 matches where an underdog (≤25%) could cause a sensation.
Group Stage - 1
Jun 15 Group G
Belgium
45%
VS
45% D
10%
Egypt
💡 Double chance : Belgium or draw
Group Stage - 1
Jun 17 Group L
England
45%
VS
45% D
10%
Croatia
💡 Double chance : England or draw
Group Stage - 2
Jun 19 Group A
Mexico
45%
VS
45% D
10%
South Korea
💡 Double chance : Mexico or draw
Group Stage - 2
Jun 21 Group F
Tunisia
45%
VS
45% D
10%
Japan
💡 Double chance : Tunisia or draw
Unpredictable Matches
Closest-predicted group stage encounters — could go either way.
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 11
Mexico
33%
33% D
33%
South Africa
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 12
South Korea
33%
33% D
33%
Czech Republic
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 12
Canada
33%
33% D
33%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 14
Haiti
33%
33% D
33%
Scotland
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 14
Australia
33%
33% D
33%
Türkiye
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 14
Germany
33%
33% D
33%
Curaçao
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 14
Ivory Coast
33%
33% D
33%
Ecuador
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 15
Sweden
33%
33% D
33%
Tunisia
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 15
Spain
33%
33% D
33%
Cape Verde Islands
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 16
Iran
33%
33% D
33%
New Zealand
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 16
France
33%
33% D
33%
Senegal
💡 No predictions available
Group Stage - 1 · Jun 16
Iraq
33%
33% D
33%
Norway
💡 No predictions available